Home prices decline as tax credit expires

By Stephanie Armour, USA TODAY

Home prices are showing signs of weakening and could slide still further now that tax credits for home buyers are no longer around to spur sales.

The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city composite index of home prices fell in March from February, the sixth-consecutive monthly decline, S&P reported Tuesday. Prices fell in 13 of 20 metro areas represented in the composite index.

DID YOUR HOME LOSE VALUE? Check its price RELATED:Demand for homes increased

The national home price index also fell 3.2% in the first quarter from the fourth, but both it and the 20-city composite index are up compared with a year earlier.

"We're beginning to see the beginning of weakness," says Paul Ashworth, senior economist at Capital Economics, adding that price declines may come close to reversing any price appreciation seen so far this year.

The tax credits "have been quite a shot in the arm short term, but there's a good chance house prices will fall again," he says.

The tax credits provided up to $6,500 for move-up home buyers and up to $8,000 for first-time home buyers, and many rushed to purchase homes before the credits expired last month. Now prices and sales are expected to fall without the federal stimulus boosting sales.

A growing supply of homes for sale also is expected to dampen sales and prices.

Total housing inventory at the end of April rose 11.5% to 4.04 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.4-month supply at the current sales pace, up from an 8.1-month supply in March, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Prices in the Case-Shiller index could continue to fall and bottom in 2011, says Patrick Newport at IHS Global Insight.

"You're going to see a sharp drop in demand because the tax credit isn't there," Newport says. "There is more supply. But demand has also grown because interest rates are really low and employment has picked up."

The average rate on a 30-year, fixed mortgage was 4.84% for the week of May 20, according to Freddie Mac. That was the lowest rate since December.

According to the Case-Shiller report, average home prices in the first quarter were close to the levels of 2003.

Metro areas posting new index lows in March were Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago, Detroit, Las Vegas, New York, Tampa and Portland, Ore.

S&P reported that eight metro areas showed significant gains from their troughs in prices. Los Angeles is up 7.2%; Minneapolis, up 7.4%; San Diego, up 10.9%; and San Francisco, up 16.2%.

San Diego has seen 11 consecutive months of increasing home prices.

Posted 5/25/2010 9:12 AM ET

County’s home values rise, but caution advised

BY ROGER SHOWLEY, UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER

TUESDAY, MAY 25, 2010 AT 9:30 P.M.

By contrast, prices in the 20 metro areas that comprise the index declined by 0.5 percent from February to March, the sixth straight decline. They were up 2.4 percent year over year.With 11 consecutive months of growth,San Diego County is leading the nation’s largest metro areas in home-price appreciation, the widely watched Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed Tuesday. In March, the index of San Diego prices was up 10.8 percent from the previous year, the biggest increase since the heady days of mid-2005.

Robert Shiller, co-creator of the index, said the national trend suggests the worst may be ahead. “I’m worried still about the risk of a double-dip,” he said.

Analysts warned that San Diego’s increase may only reflect a change in market mix, not an increase in value, and that it will likely to slow down and possibly reverse as additional foreclosed homes hit the market.

“We shouldn’t be looking to get to a high, unrealistic, completely overinflated price,” said Brad Kemp, director of regional analysis at Beacon Economics of San Rafael. “We can’t get caught up in the idea that a rising price (out of step with income growth) is good.”

According to Case-Shiller, San Diego’s index, set at 100 in January 2000, stood at 160.22 in March, meaning that the price for the same single-family home tracked over time was 60.2 percent higher than it was at the beginning of the last decade. The index rose to a peak 250.34 in November 2005 and fell to 144.43 in April 2009. In other words, it is 36 percent off the peak and 10.9 percent up from the trough.

San Diego’s index has risen steadily since that trough, the only one of the 20 metro areas surveyed to see such an increase. The month-to-month increase has accelerated recently to the February-March rate of 1.5 percent.

Patrick Nugent, U.S. economist for IHSGlobal Insight in Massachusetts, said he was “very confused” by San Diego’s price trends.

“You’d think with the economy dead,unemployment high and foreclosures a big problem that housing prices would not grow, but they are,” Nugent said, “and they’re apparently growing inCalifornia.”

He was referring to a second set of figures from the Federal Housing Finance Agency that showed California home prices up 2.9 percent in the first quarter on a year-over-year basis, though San Diego’s were down 4.2 percent over the same period. The report was based on conforming loans — generally mortgages of less than $417,000 — that are held by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two government-backed buyers of loans on the secondary market. Thus, they exclude higher-priced properties and all-cash investor purchases that figure into the San Diego market.

Nugent’s colleague, Jim Diffley, who focuses on California, said he thought the San Diego region and the state were ahead of the country because they experienced the wave of foreclosures first.

“The whole issue is the mix of houses,” he said.

Michael Lea, director of the Corky McMillin Center for Real Estate at San Diego State University, said prices are rising because more higher-priced homes are selling than a year ago.

“That’s a positive for the market overall,” Lea said. “We’ve been talking about a shadow inventory that existed, part of which is people who just held off selling because they thought prices were going to continue to go down. If more of those people come into the market, it’s healthy for the market to establish a nondistressed clearing mechanism.”

A breakdown of the Case-Shiller index by price tiers supported Lea’s theory. The top tier, above $465,686, had the largest month-to-month price increases while the lowest tier, below $311,200, fell slightly by 0.3 percent.

Beacon’s Kemp said bank policy rather than market mix may be at work. He argued that banks are keeping distressed homes off the market and thereby prompting overbidding by bargain hunters. That way, prices come closer to outstanding loan balances and banks lose less.

“We think it’s an artificially unsustainable rise being caused by artificially keeping inventories low,” Kemp said.

Lea, who worked in banking before joining academia, said banks are too bureaucratic to engage in this sort of activity. He said many banks continue to work on loan modification and will likely foreclose on more homes as such alternatives prove unworkable for many distressed borrowers.

Regardless, Kemp, Lea and Nugent predicted price rises will slow down in coming months.

The Associated Press contributed to this report. Roger Showley: (619) 293-1286; roger.showley@uniontrib.com

Local housing recovery expected to slow

Forecasters say prices likely to rise about 15% over 4 years in county

BY ROGER SHOWLEY, UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER

FRIDAY, MAY 21, 2010 AT 9:22 P.M.

San Diego County home prices, which began to recover last year, will continue rising but at a slowing pace as government stimulus programs expire, Beacon Economics forecasters predicted Friday.

In a wide-ranging review of the local economy at the San Diego Hilton Torrey Pines, the San Rafael consulting firm’s economists said single-family resale home prices will trend upward, from the first quarter’s median of $382,788 to $439,000 over the next four years — a nearly 15 percent rise.

“Home prices in San Diego are great news here,” said Brad Kemp, Beacon’s director of regional research.

But the recent increases occurred with the help of federal stimulus dollars, not because of any underlying economic fundamentals, such as significant job or population growth that would spark long-term demand, the economists said.

With foreclosures expected to increase, home-buying incentives expiring and nearly a third of all homes worth less than their mortgage balance, Kemp said sales and price growth will slow down. The $439,000 median price forecast for 2014 would still be 23 percent below the 2006 peak of $571,580.

“I don’t think it will grow at an exponential pace anytime soon,” he said.

The forecast falls in line with other economists and real estate industry analysts, who have predicted a leveling off of prices or a drop of as much as 5 percent for the rest of the year, after federal homebuyer tax credits and low interest rates end. An expected increase in foreclosure properties also is expected to keep a damper on prices.

In an interview, Kemp said that as prices rise, even at a slowing pace, San Diego will again become less affordable to local buyers. They will likely turn northward to buy in southern Riverside County and commute to work in San Diego, just as they did during the past decade’s boom.

Kemp said new-home builders are ramping up construction of both homes and apartments to meet a perceived pickup in demand.

“But when demand starts to drop and price gains begin to wane, builder enthusiasm will likely fade,” Kemp wrote in an accompanying report. “The number of permits issued will return to a sustainable level in 2011 and stay there through the end of the Beacon Economics forecast (2014).”

Beacon predicted that single-family home sales will dip from today’s seasonally adjusted quarterly rate of 7,119, to 6,290 by the end of next year, and then rise to 7,400 by 2014. That’s better than last year’s low of 5,814 sales but less than the 10,000 rate in 2003.

In nonresidential real estate, Beacon predicted “turmoil” through next year, resulting in commercial property prices down by as much as 40 percent.

Office vacancies, currently about 19.3 percent, will fall only to 13 percent over the next four years as employment growth remains sluggish. Industry norms consider a healthy office vacancy rate to be less than 10 percent.

“Looking ahead to the rest of 2010 through 2012, the health of the office market will be largely tied to the extent of increased government spending on biotech and technology,” said Patrick S. Duffy of MetroIntelligence Real Estate Advisors, who wrote the chapter on commercial real estate in the Beacon report.

High vacancies will mean bargains for investors in some office buildings, he said, but values will still end up 36 percent below their peak of 2006.

Retail sales and leases have improved here more than in other parts of the state, but consumer demand is expected to ebb as tax cuts and rebates disappear. Beacon’s Christopher Thornberg said spending lately rose at a 3 percent annual rate though incomes were up only 2 percent.

“It’s not good for how the economy will play out,” he said.

Looking at the economy as a whole, Thornberg said the United States is “absolutely” out of the recession.

“I see a good year ahead and a big slowdown in 2011-12,” he said. Now, “a good dose of patience” is what’s needed.

Roger Showley: (619) 293-1286; roger.showley@uniontrib.com

Zappos.com's $1.6M Mistake That Boosted its Brand

Zappos.com, the popular shoe site that embraces exceptional customer service and successful use of social media, made an expensive mistake over the weekend that cost them $1.6 million but ultimately used the blunder to boost their brand image.

So what happened? Zappos.com's sister site, 6pm.com, ran into a technical glitch that priced everything on the site at $49.95 or under for several hours on Sunday morning. Items that ranged up to thousands of dollars could be bought at $49.95.

When Zappos.com realized the mistake, they shut down the site to fix the problem and restore the original prices. But here's the best part: the company honored the prices they mistakenly sold the products at. Aaron Magness from Zappos.com stated, "While we're sure this was a great deal for customers, it was inadvertent, and we took a big loss (over $1.6 million - ouch) selling so many items so far under cost. However, it was our mistake. We will be honoring all purchases that took place on 6pm.com during our mess up."

What can marketers and business owners learn from this?

Staying consistent with their core value of building honest relationships with their customers, Zappos.com held up their end of their promise to deliver phenomenal service. Instead of allowing the media to criticize the mistake, they used the press to display their commitment to consumers. The free publicity helped generate buzz for Zappos, secured its reputation for stellar customer service, and greatly increased the reach of 6pm.com across the web.

For many businesses, it is important to remember that social media and traditional media can play a huge role in generating buzz for your company and impacting your brand image. Taking advantage of PR, even in bad situations, can help your company shine amongst your competition. By flipping an unfortunate incident on its head, your company will not only gain credibility for admitting its mistake but also receive customer trust for handling the situation in a transparent and honest way.

HubSpot's Inbound Internet Marketing Blog

Home prices hold steady in Southern California

BY ROGER SHOWLEY, UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER

ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED MAY 18, 2010 AT 1:09 P.M., UPDATED MAY 18, 2010 AT 10:35 P.M.

Southern California home prices remained flat from March to April, as sales shifted into May for tax-rebate reasons, MDA DataQuick reported Tuesday. Still, the year-over-year increase was 15.4 percent to an overall median of $285,000.

As reported Monday, San Diego’s median slipped from $330,000 in March to $325,250, but was up 12.2 percent from April 2009’s $290,000. Prices followed the same pattern in Orange, Riverside and San Bernardinocounties — down from March but up from April 2009. Orange had the best year-over-year increase, up 13.2 percent to $430,000, which was $2,000 less than in March.

Los Angeles was up $500 from March and $29,500, or 9.9 percent, from a year ago to $329,500, while Ventura showed the only major monthly boost, going from $375,000 to $382,000.

The overall regional median remained unchanged from March, but was $38,000 ahead of April 2009’s $247,000.

Southern California sales totaled 20,299, down from March’s 20,476 and April 2009’s 20,514. DataQuick attributed the rare March-April decline to buyers shifting the close of escrow into May to take advantage of the $10,000 state homebuyer tax credit as well as the federal credit.

“The market’s still taking baby steps on a long road to recovery, trying to find its footing,” said DataQuick President John Walsh.

The company said sales increased in costlier coastal markets and decreased in less-expensive inland areas. Riverside and San Bernardino counties accounted for 37 percent of Southern California sales in April 2009 and 33.8 percent last month. The market share of $500,000-plus homes rose from 14.8 percent in April 2009 to 19.3 percent last month, and the top third of ZIP codes represented 28.6 percent of sales, up from 23.2 percent a year ago.

Sales of distressed properties eased a bit in April, with foreclosures sales accounting for 36.4 percent of the resale market, down from 38.3 percent in March and 53.5 percent in April 2009.

But speculator activity seemed to grow, based on flipping rates — the percentage of homes resold between three weeks and six months after the initial sale. The rate in April was 3.4 percent, nearly three times the 1.3 percent rate of a year earlier. However, all-cash purchases slipped from 27.9 percent to 27.7 percent from March to April.

Roger Showley: (619) 293-1286; roger.showley@uniontrib.com

Home prices dip slightly, possible sign of stabilizing

BY ROGER SHOWLEY

WEDNESDAY, MAY 20, 2009 AT 2 A.M

Southern California housing prices dropped only slightly last month, MDA DataQuick reported yesterday in the latest sign prices could be stabilizing.

But the latest figures also indicate how inactive the upper end of the market is, with only 20 percent of homes selling above $500,000, half the market share of 2007.

DataQuick said the six-county region turned in a median price of $247,000 in April, down $3,000 from March and off 35.8 percent from year-ago levels. Two counties, San Diego and Ventura, reported higher medians; Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino were lower; and Los Angles was unchanged.

Sales totaled 20,514 across the region, up 31.4 percent year-over-year, making this the most active April in three years. But the figure was still 18.2 percent below the average April since 1988.

“It's very good news,” said Esmael Adibi, economist at Chapman University. Low prices are “energizing” buyers to get off the fence, he said. “That is obviously the first step that we need to see before we get stabilization in the prices.”

Adibi said the bad news was the relatively low activity in high-priced home buying, caused by relatively high interest payments and economic difficulties facing would-be buyers.

“If you have money, you're not sure if it's the right time to buy expensive homes,” he said.

Robert Kleinhenz, an economist at the California Association of Realtors, said that in 2007 about 43 percent of all single-family resale homes were priced below $500,000. In March the figure was 80 percent.

The market share shift came from lower prices attracting more buyers, while upper-end buyers “starved” for affordable loans and potential high-end sellers were reluctant to sell at a loss.

But he said the situation varies geographically, with high-cost coastal zones seeing very little activity and inland, lower-cost markets doing better than usual.

“The obvious question is, has the market or home prices bottomed out,” he said. “It's a lot more difficult question to answer than it appears to be at first glance.”

Complicating the forecasts is the outlook for foreclosures and defaults. After a period of moratorium on foreclosures, lenders are now free to take back distressed properties.

“You've got to bear in mind that overall there's going to be a huge number of foreclosures coming down the pike in the future,” said Christopher Thornberg at the Beacon Economics consulting firm. “It's not over yet. It's way too early to call this thing over.”

Kleinhenz said that if foreclosures peak by year's end, it's possible that overall median prices might fall once again, as buyers scoop up bargains. But then there might be a sizable recovery and upswing next year, assuming the economy does not falter.

“It's likely to be the year of recovery pretty much throughout California,” he said.

Adibi said unemployment rates are likely to keep rising as job losses continue, but there are signs that the pace of losses may slow.

“If I'm correct, I'd say by the end of the year, we may see stability in the housing market,” he said. “If for some reason I'm wrong, and job loss intensifies and unemployment jumps up, those factors are very important in impacting the demand.”

Thornberg conceded that San Diego's year-over-year price decline is slowing as sales increase.

“I don't think you've hit bottom, but it is realistic to say things have been coming into the bottom,” he said. “This certainly does seem to indicate that's the direction we're going.”

Based on April's sales counts, he predicted, “I think home sales will be strong for the rest of the year, because there are deals to be had.”

First-time homebuyers see affordability improve

BY ROGER SHOWLEY, UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER

FRIDAY, MAY 14, 2010 AT 9:14 P.M.

Housing was slightly more affordable for first-time buyers in San Diego County in the opening months of 2010, as interest rates remained low and prices stayed relatively flat.

The California Association of Realtors said first-time-homebuyer affordability rose to 58 percent in the first quarter, heading toward the record 60 percent set in the first quarter of 2009. It was the third straight quarter-to-quarter increase and paralleled a similar climb statewide.

The number is based on how many households have the income to afford an entry-level, single-family resale home — defined as 85 percent of the realty group’s median price for all homes in a given area, a 10 percent down payment and an adjustable-rate mortgage at 4.3 percent.

The association has been tracking starter-home affordability since 2000, but does not calculate overall affordability. The National Association of Home Builders issued its Housing Opportunity Index in February, saying 48.1 percent of the homes sold in San Diego County in the fourth quarter of 2009 were affordable to median-income households.

Although median home prices have been edging higher in recent months, analysts said that trend has more to do with market mix: More higher-priced homes are selling and elevating the median. Zillow.com recently said overall home values in San Diego have risen nearly 4 percent over the past year, but individual properties can vary from the norm.

For San Diego, the realty group said the entry-level price in the first quarter was $322,120, the qualifying income $54,330 and the monthly payment $1,810. The 58 percent affordability rate was up from 57 percent in the fourth quarter of last year and 56 percent in the third quarter.

Statewide, 66 percent of households earned the $41,540 necessary to buy an entry-level home priced at $246,270 and carrying a monthly payment of $1,380. The highest affordability rate, 84 percent, was in the high-desert areas. The lowest, 52 percent, was in San Luis Obispo. The statewide figure for affordability for starter condominiums was 70 percent on a price of $220,720, income of $37,230 and a monthly payment of $1,240.

The U.S. affordability rate was set at 79 percent, based on a median starter home of $141,190, qualifying income of $23,810 and monthly payment of $790.

Roger Showley: (619) 293-1286; roger.showley@uniontrib.com

Home prices could sink without tax credit

By Stephanie Armour, USA TODAY

Home prices are widely expected to fall now that a tax credit for home buyers has expired.

That's raising concern about a possible double dip in home prices.

National housing prices stopped falling early last year and rose 0.3% over the 12 months ending in February, according to a study by real estate analytics firm CoreLogic.

The firm predicts prices will fall this year before starting to rise again in late 2010. Even so, next February's prices are likely to be 4.2% lower, it forecasts.

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"Home prices will struggle for maybe another year," says Mark Fleming, CoreLogic's chief economist.

A shrunken pool of buyers due to the tax credit's expiration is one reason.

"The tax credit is the big reason home prices have been so buoyant, and sales will drop" with its expiration, says Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics. "You will see a double dip in housing prices."

Another reason is the number of distressed houses — including foreclosures and short sales — that are on the market or that will be in coming months.

Distressed homes, typically sold at discounted prices, accounted for 36% of first-quarter sales, the National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday. The first quarter's median single-family home price ($166,100) was roughly flat with a year earlier, despite gains in nearly two-thirds of 152 metro areas that the NAR surveys.

The NAR's survey isn't the first to show evidence of softening prices. The 20-city Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller Home Price Index has fallen for five-consecutive months through February.

"It is too early to say the housing market is recovering," David Blitzer, chairman of S&P's index committee, said when the Case-Shiller report for February was released last month.

There may be some good news for sellers in areas not hit so hard by foreclosures. When distressed sales are excluded, CoreLogic's Home Price Index shows a 4.9% rise in U.S. prices from this February through next February.

While some economists expect home prices to weaken, they don't expect a major drop.

"I wouldn't expect anything like the meltdown we've had over the past couple years," says Jay Feldman, senior economist at Credit Suisse

Price Cuts Stir Ultra High-End Homes

Crown of the Sea in Corona del Mar: $25 million price down 16% since January By Mark Mueller Orange County Business Journal Sunday, April 11, 2010 Sitting on a seaside cliff near Corona del Mar’s Inspiration Point, 3729 Ocean Blvd. counts 7,000 square feet of spectacular views, an elevator, library, gym and wine tasting room with design flourishes courtesy of Brion Jeannette, a noted area architect. The three-story home, dubbed Crown of the Sea, also has a sizeable $25 million price tag, making it the third-most expensive existing home for sale in the Newport Beach area. But Crown of the Sea’s asking price is $5 million cheaper than it was in January, when it first was put up for sale. “We (lowered the price) to show the owner is motivated,” said Jason Morrison, a broker with Windermere Real Estate who is listing the home. “He realizes the market conditions.” Call it the latest example of the changing market for Orange County’s ultra high-end homes. Demand for cheaper, inland homes has risen in recent months, firming up that end of the market. But for more expensive homes, it’s still “a buyers market,” said Steven Thomas, president of Aliso Viejo-based brokerage Altera Real Estate, in a monthly housing report. For homes “priced above $1 million, there is not a lack of inventory,” Thomas said. For the most expensive homes, it’s even more of a buyer’s market. Through mid-March, there were about 330 homes priced more than $4 million up for sale in the county. Only 12 of those homes had sales pending, giving prospective wealthy buyers plenty of local options, according to Altera’s data. The imbalance is causing high-end home sellers to drop their asking prices at rates approaching the declines seen in the rest of the county’s housing market. The median price for a home sold in the area’s five most prestigious coastal Zip codes fell by more than 25% last year, according to data from Corona del Mar-based Meyers Builder Advisors and San Diego’s MDA DataQuick, a unit of Canada’s MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates Ltd. From a price perspective, it appears to have been the worst year for OC’s high-end homes since the onset of the downturn. Prices for the most expensive homes in and around Newport Beach and Laguna Beach now are off by 35% to 40%, in line with the declines seen in the county’s housing market at large, according to Gary Legrand, president of Newport Beach-based brokerage Surterre Properties. The flipside is that price drops are starting to spur sales, Legrand said. “Business is real good right now,” he said. “A lot (of buyers) think we’ve hit bottom.” Surterre put nearly twice as many homes into escrow in the first quarter as a year earlier, Legrand said. The brokerage just put a $14 million Newport Beach home in escrow, he said. As with the Crown of the Sea, upscale homeowners have been adjusting prices, slashing millions off their asking prices. A waterfront home in Laguna Beach’s Irvine Cove, Abalone Point—Laguna Beach’s second-most expensive home currently listed—saw its initial $40 million asking price lowered to $31.5 million, according to brokerage data. The 10,800-square-foot home has been on the market for about a year, according to data from Seattle-based online housing site Redfin.com. A 10-bedroom mansion on Harbor Island—Newport Beach’s second-most expensive home now on the market—has a $32.6 million asking price, down from $38 million in mid-2008, according to brokerage data. Auctions At Dana Point’s Headlands at the Strand development, sellers are trying new ways to draw wealthy buyers, including a pair of auctions slated for this week. An auction set for Saturday lists two homes previously offered at $15 million. The homes have a minimum bid of $6.9 million and are set to be sold to the highest bidder above that, according to auctioneer Concierge Auctions LLC of West Palm Beach, Fla. Two other Strand homes also are up for auction with minimum bids of $7.5 million. Not all prospective sellers of trophy homes are rushing to discount their properties. A few notable owners, such as software executive Frank Pritt—owner of the $75 million-valued Portabello estate in Corona del Mar—appear to have taken their homes off the market rather than cut their prices. Sales Last year, there were 112 homes sold in Corona del Mar’s 92625 Zip code with a median price of $1.7 million, down 23% from a year earlier. In Laguna Beach’s 92651 Zip code, there were 286 homes sold at a median price of $1.2 million, down 29%. Of the five most expensive coastal Zip codes, the most affordable is 92660 in Newport Beach’s Back Bay, which counted a median sales price of about $1.1 million last year, down 29%. Foreclosures could start to have more of an effect on some of coastal areas in 2010. There are nearly 500 Newport Beach homes in some stage of foreclosure, according to data from Irvine-based RealtyTrac Inc. There are an additional 200 homes in Laguna Beach that are in some stage of foreclosure. Only a small portion of those homes in both cities are listed at more than $2 million, according RealtyTrac.