Tuesday, March 19, 2013

HOMES FOR SALE IN LOW SUPPLY

As spring buying season starts, prices likely to keep rising

The supply of homes for sale is still unusually tight as the spring buying season opens, turning up the heat on already- rising prices.

The number of homes listed for sale on real estate website Zillow was down almost 17% in late February vs. a year earlier. In some California markets, it was down more than 40%.

The supply crunch is likely to last all year, says IHS Global Insight economist Patrick Newport. “We’re still not building enough homes.”

The U. S. is creating about 1.1 million new households a year, but housing starts in January came in at an 890,000 annual rate, the government says.

As prices rise, though, more owners will be motivated to sell, easing supply shortages, economists say. The tight inventory is a big driver of rising prices.

Home prices were up 7.3% in the fourth quarter from a year before, Standard & Poor’s Case- Shiller data show. That was much faster than most economists expected for 2012.

Nationwide, the supply of homes for sale — based on the pace of sales — fell in January to 4.2 months, the National Association of Realtors says. That’s an almost eight- year low. A six- month to seven- month supply is considered balanced between buyers and sellers.

The availability of the most expensive homes in the markets Zillow tracks has tightened more than those at lower price levels.

Homes for sale in what Zillow defines as the top price tier in each market fell by almost 21% in February vs. a year earlier. The inventory of homes in the middle tier dropped 17%; those in the bottom tier fell 9%.

Five California cities in Zillow’s survey are among those seeing the biggest inventory drops, from a 48% decline in Sacramento to a 36% falloff in Riverside. Other cities are also seeing significantly fewer listings. New York is down almost 19%; Dallas/ Fort Worth, nearly 21%; and Orlando is off 27%.

Only five of 99 metros showed an increase in listings, led by El Paso, up 19%, and Albuquerque, up 8%. Little Rock, Fort Myers, Fla., and Youngstown, Ohio, also saw increases.

Written by,
Julie Schmit
USA TODAY

Friday, March 15, 2013

JOBLESS RATE DROPS TO 4-YEAR LOW

The American job market isn't just growing. It's accelerating.

Employers added 236,000 jobs in February and drove down the unemployment rate to 7.7 percent, its lowest level in more than four years. The gains signal that companies are confident enough in the economy to intensify hiring even in the face of tax increases and government spending cuts.

Last month capped a fourth-month hiring spree in which employers have added an average of 205,000 jobs a month. The hiring has been fueled by steady improvement in housing, auto sales, manufacturing and corporate profits, along with record-low borrowing rates.

Before the spree, employers added an average of 154,000 jobs from July through October and only 108,000 from April through June.

"The recovery is gathering momentum," Paul Ashworth, an economist at Capital Economics, said in a note to clients.

The gains could boost consumer spending, adding momentum to the U.S. recovery and helping troubled economies in Europe and Asia.

The U.S. economy is forecast to grow a modest 2 percent this year. Growth will likely be held back by uncertainty about the federal budget, higher Social Security taxes and across-the-board government spending cuts that kicked in March 1. And unemployment remains high nearly four years after the end of the Great Recession. Roughly 12 million people remain out of work.

The unemployment rate declined in February from 7.9 percent in January mostly because more people found work. Another factor was that 130,000 people without jobs stopped looking for work last month. The government doesn't count them as unemployed.

The last time unemployment was lower was December 2008, when it was 7.3 percent.

The unemployment rate is calculated from a survey of households. The number of jobs gained is derived from a separate survey of employers.

Hiring would be rising even faster if governments weren't shrinking their workforces, as they have been for nearly four years. Governments cut 10,000 jobs in February.

Some $44 billion in spending cuts kicked in last week after Congress failed to reach a budget deal. The cuts are expected to shave about a half-point from economic growth this year and lower total hiring by about 30,000 jobs a month from April through September, according to Moody's Analytics.

And most workers have had to absorb higher Social Security taxes this year. Someone earning $50,000 has about $1,000 less to spend in 2013. A household with two high-paid workers has up to $4,500 less.

Stock prices rose after the report was released and strengthened later in the day. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 67 points to 14,397, its fourth straight record close.

Robust auto sales and a steady housing recovery are spurring more hiring, which will trigger more consumer spending and could lead to stronger economic growth. The construction industry added 48,000 jobs in February; it's added 151,000 since September. Manufacturing gained 14,000 jobs last month and 39,000 since November.

Among industry categories, the biggest job growth in February was in professional and business services, which added 73,000. This category includes higher-paying jobs in accounting, engineering and information technology as well as temporary positions that typically pay less.

Retailers added 24,000 jobs. Education and health services gained 24,000. And the information industry, which includes publishing, telecommunications and film, added 20,000, mostly in the movie industry.

The economy is generating more higher-paying jobs. That trend is raising average pay, which will help offset the hit that Americans took from higher Social Security taxes and gas prices.

Hourly wages rose 4 cents to $23.82 last month. Wages have risen 2.1 percent over the past year, slightly ahead of inflation. Higher pay is vital to the economy because consumer spending drives 70 percent of economic activity.

Hotel chain Cambria Suites expects business travel to rise 5 percent this year and next. Cambria, a unit of Choice Hotels International, is building nearly 20 hotels around the country, doubling its total. It plans to add 110 jobs this year and 400 next year to its workforce of 600.

The improved job market can also benefit countries that sell goods and services to U.S. consumers and businesses.

"All you have to do is look at the trade numbers," says Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group. "The strength in the U.S. economy is leading to faster growth in imports."

Imports rose 2 percent in January from December. Those from China surged 7 percent.

A stronger U.S. economy, Baumohl says, will also help a battered Europe, which is contending with high unemployment and a debt crisis. The United States is the No. 1 market for exports from the 27-country European Union.

"The extent to which the U.S. is recovering and potentially the labor market is improving is potentially an important dynamic that Europe would welcome," said Nick Matthews, an economist at Nomura in London.

The U.S. economy is benefiting from the Federal Reserve's drive to keep interest rates at record lows. Lower borrowing rates have made it easier for Americans to buy homes and cars and for companies to expand.

The Fed and key central banks overseas have taken extraordinary steps to pump money into their financial systems to try to spur borrowing and spending, boost stock prices and stimulate growth.

The Fed has said it plans to keep the benchmark rate it controls near zero at least until the unemployment rate has fallen to 6.5 percent, as long as the inflation outlook remains mild.

Friday's jobs report isn't expected to move up the Fed's timetable for any rate increase.

The brighter hiring picture has yet to cause a flood of out-of-work people who aren't looking for a job to start seeking one. The proportion of Americans either working or looking for work dipped one-tenth of a percentage point in February to 63.5 percent, matching a 30-year low.

Even though the recession officially ended in June 2009, many Americans have remained discouraged about their job prospects and have given up looking. Others have returned to, or stayed in, school. And the vast generation of baby boomers has begun to retire; the oldest are now 67. Their exodus reduces the percentage of adults working or looking for work.

The pickup in hiring hasn't yet benefited the long-term unemployed. Nearly 4.8 million Americans have been out of work for six months or longer, nearly 100,000 more than in January.

Further strong hiring gains will hinge, in part, on healthy consumer spending. So far, higher gas prices and a Jan. 1 increase in Social Security taxes haven't caused Americans to sharply cut back on spending. But if the economy can continue to add 200,000 or more jobs a month, it means that many more people will have disposable income to spend.

A big source of strength has been home sales and residential construction: New-home sales jumped 16 percent in January to the highest level since July 2008. And builders started work on the most homes last year since 2008.

The year-over-year increase in home prices in January was the biggest in six years. Higher prices tend to make homeowners feel wealthier and more likely to spend. So do record-high stock prices.

"If my house is worth a little more, my 401(k) is going up ... maybe I can afford to go buy that car, or continue to spend," says Ed Hyland, investment specialist at JPMorgan Private Bank.

By CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER
AP Economics Writer

AP Business Writers Paul Wiseman in Washington and David McHugh in Frankfurt, Germany, contributed to this report.

Friday, March 1, 2013

SAN DIEGO HOME PRICES UP 9% REPORT: San Diego Homes Prices Up 9% From A Year Ago

San Diego home prices ended 2012 with a bang, mirroring a trend seen in other major U.S. metro areas.

The price of a local home sold in December rose 9 percent from the same time a year ago, based on the S&P/Case-Shiller home price report released Tuesday. That boost is the highest year-ago increase for any given month since July 2010. Values have risen 11 straight months, Case-Shiller data show.

All but one city, New York, showed year-over-year progress in December. New York prices fell 0.5 percent, according to the monthly index. When looking at the 20 cities in the index together, prices are up 6.8 percent.

“Home prices ended 2012 with solid gains,” David M. Blitzer, chairman of the index committee, said in a statement. “Housing and residential construction led the economy in the 2012 fourth quarter.”

Blitzer said prices on a national level bottomed out in March and continue to show increases. That, along with other housing news, suggests that “while housing is on the upswing some of the strongest numbers may have already been seen.”

Phoenix and San Francisco saw the biggest year-over-year jumps, at 23 percent and 14.4 percent respectively.

What’s behind the uptick?

In San Diego, rising sales and a smaller inventory of available homes are driving up price.

Inventory here is near a 52-month low, with about 4,200 active home listings in the county, according to numbers from the San Diego Association of Realtors.

One key reason listings are so low: A significant share of homeowners are underwater on their mortgages, meaning they owe more than the house is worth. That means many homeowners who might want to sell are sitting on the sidelines until they regain equity in their property.

The share of borrowers in San Diego County with negative equity has eased though, dropping from 31 percent in the third quarter to 28 percent in the fourth quarter, based on recent data from real estate website Zillow.

Steady price increases should help fuel the housing recovery. They encourage more people to buy before prices rise further. Higher prices also build homeowners’ wealth, which can spur more spending and economic growth.

In a separate report, the Commerce Department said Tuesday that new-home sales across the nation rose nearly 16 percent in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 437,000. The percentage increase was the largest in nearly 20 years. And December’s sales were revised higher to 378,000 from 369,000.

Steady job creation and near-record-low mortgage rates are spurring more Americans to buy houses. Sales of previously occupied homes rose to the highest level in five years last year.

At the same time, the number of previously occupied homes for sale is at a 13-year low.

The supply of new homes for sale was unchanged last month at 150,000. That’s barely above August’s total of 143,000 — the smallest supply of new homes on records dating back to 1963.

At the current sales pace, it would take just 4.1 months to exhaust the number of new homes for sale, the lowest in eight years. Still, the increases in new-home sales are coming from depressed levels. Sales plummeted to a record low in 2011. And sales are still well below the 700,000 annual level that economists consider healthy.

The Case-Shiller index is calculated every month and has a two-month lag since it covers repeat sales.

Local real estate tracker DataQuick says the median price for a San Diego home sold in January was $350,000, nearly 15 percent higher than a year ago. The county is still about 32 percent below the peak of $517,500 set in November 2005.

Despite the increases, prices nationwide are still about 30 percent below the peak they reached at the height of the housing bubble in the summer of 2006. They are now at the same level as in the fall of 2003.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

By Lily Leung