Wednesday, January 21, 2009

LOWER PRICES AND SURGING SALES ACTIVITY

What does it mean when prices fall 34% from one year earlier but sales increase by more than 50% at the same time?

It means there are some incredible deals out there and a new generation of buyers is back in the market place.

DataQuick reported this week that the median home price in San Diego stood at $300,000 in December, down from $425,000 one year earlier. For all of Southern California, the median price was $278,000.

In the hardest hit areas of Southern California, such as Riverside and San Bernardino, the sales bounce has been even more dramatic. Sales activity in Riverside was up 77% in December and San Bernardino was up over 88%.

So here’s what the market looks like today:

Foreclosures are still driving the market. As we’ve talked about before, the vast majority of our foreclosures have been at the lowest price points. With an abundance of lower priced homes on the market, first-time buyers who may have been renting the past three, four or even five years are now pouring back into the market.

The other big driving factor is interest rates. As you know, 30-year fixed rate are available in the low 5’s right now, creating almost a perfect storm of discounted housing with the lowest possible payments for first time buyers. If your marketing is at least somewhat focused on this group, you’re missing a huge opportunity.

Finally, I believe that help is on the way. The Obama administration has promised to do whatever it takes to restore confidence in the housing market, and I expect to see both incentives for buyers to get back into the market and help for those who have lost value on their homes.

Two other encouraging pieces of news in the DataQuick report: the number of resales in San Diego involving foreclosures fell from 52% in November to just over 50% in December. That means half our sales are for private owners with enough equity to sell.

The other interesting statistic is that DataQuick found the average payment on homes sold regionwide in December was $1,239, down from $2,060 just one year ago. After adjusting for inflation, payments are now down 54% from the peak of the market in July of 2007.

Affordability is back in our market for the first time in almost a decade, and it’s time for buyers (and their agents) to be decisive in the face of incredible opportunity.