Housing data show county’s ups, downs
Changes in median price are literally all over the map
By Roger Showley, UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
Sunday, January 24, 2010 at 1:33 a.m.
If you own a home in western Escondido, you enjoyed a 37 percent increase in last year’s median home price, the most of any major neighborhood in the county, according to MDA DataQuick.
On the other hand, a homeowner in San Ysidro endured a 32 percent decline, the worst drop of any area.
Across the county, median prices in 40 ZIP codes were up, 41 were down and four were unchanged. In other words, it looks like half of the county saw a housing recovery in the past year.
Overall, prices in the fourth quarter of 2009 rose year over year by $15,000 — or nearly 5 percent — to $325,000, indicating a firming of the market.
Although housing experts said the starter-home market at $350,000 has stabilized and appears to be rising as distressed properties leave the market, homes above $800,000 are still falling because of job losses and higher-cost mortgages.
Buyers always want to know where to find deals, but there is no geographic pricing pattern. Some high-end ZIP codes such as Rancho Santa Fe were up, while others such as Coronado were down. North Park dropped, while neighboring Normal Heights-Kensington increased. Spring Valley was up; Lemon Grove was flat.
Veteran real estate consultant Alan Nevin said the local housing market is becoming more stable, but he noted that the quarterly figures do not show a clear trend.
“I was hoping to find a pattern, and there was no pattern,” Nevin said. “Even in neighborhoods where there was a lot of activity, you would have thought, with 300 to 400 sales, you could be pretty reliant on the accuracy of the numbers. I’m not seeing that.”
If the experts are befuddled, where does that leave buyers and sellers?
Throughout the county, the lowest prices in years sparked keen interest from buyers who could not afford to participate during the boom. Jim Bottrell of Realty Experts in Escondido said that Oceanside was particularly active. Virtually all of the 42 transactions Bottrell handled last year involved military families.
“You have a military market that for the last 10 years hasn’t been able to buy,” Bottrell said. “All of a sudden, they can afford to buy a house.”
In western Escondido — ZIP code 92029 — where the median had the sharpest rise, Norman and Marietta Young had to lower the asking price by $30,000 to $465,000 last week on their 2,610-square-foot home on 1.35 acres at Country Club Drive. The Youngs might have been able to sell at $700,000 several years ago.
“It was insane,” Norman Young said. “It was not supply and demand, it was an absurdity.”
They had the home in escrow last year near the first listing price of $495,000 before the buyer backed out because of financing problems.
“I think the pricing of homes right now is a lot more realistic,” Young said.
Their agent, Monica White of Picot Realty, said she plans an open house next weekend and expects to receive offers at the reduced price.
DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage cautioned against reading too much into price increases in certain ZIP codes.
“For now, I think the increases we’re seeing in the median are largely the result of changes in the types of homes selling,”
LePage said, adding that there may be fewer low-priced homes but more higher-priced, discounted homes.
LePage said that while coastal properties generally are holding their values better than inland homes, high-priced properties are still eroding.
Gerri-Lynn Fives, president of the Coronado Real Estate Association, said she was not surprised to learn that Coronado’s median price was down 21 percent to $995,000 because many owners of second homes were willing to sell at a loss. Unless would-be buyers can make a 20 percent down payment, they usually cannot take advantage of the lower prices.
In downtown San Diego, hit hard by the overbuilding of high-rise condominiums during the boom years, Jim Abbott of ARG Abbott Realty said there are 411 listings in a market where there were 337 sales in the fourth quarter. The median price was $365,000, down 11.7 percent from a year earlier.
“There’s no question that the first crush of foreclosures that hit the market were snapped up by many all-cash investors,” Abbott said. “That actually stabilized the market and made it very competitive.”
Those investors are largely gone, replaced by owner-occupants who are stymied from buying because of lender rules that are tougher for condos than single-family homes.
“I really think we have another at least three to five years of this, because there’s so much inventory that’s not on the market,” Abbott said.
He was referring to the shadow inventory of foreclosures that banks have not yet listed for sale, plus homes previously offered for sale but taken off the market by owners who did not want to lower their prices.
The result is that as of last week, listings since July have dropped 35.6 percent to 4,706 single-family resale homes, according to the San Diego Association of Realtors. Resale condo listings were down 45.4 percent to 2,571.
Jorge Vega, broker for Community HousingWorks, said the declining inventory of starter homes is forcing first-time buyers to increase their down payment offers to compete against all-cash buyers. Vega said those who want to take advantage of the $8,000 federal tax credit, plus those eligible for the $6,500 move-up tax credit, should be aware of the April 30 deadline.
“I think the market is beginning to demonstrate some consistency, but overall, San Diego’s numbers are so varied that I think we’re still in for some surprises before this is out,” Vega said. “Toward the end of the year, we will be able to have a clear picture of what’s going on.”
Changes in median price are literally all over the map
By Roger Showley, UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
Sunday, January 24, 2010 at 1:33 a.m.
If you own a home in western Escondido, you enjoyed a 37 percent increase in last year’s median home price, the most of any major neighborhood in the county, according to MDA DataQuick.
On the other hand, a homeowner in San Ysidro endured a 32 percent decline, the worst drop of any area.
Across the county, median prices in 40 ZIP codes were up, 41 were down and four were unchanged. In other words, it looks like half of the county saw a housing recovery in the past year.
Overall, prices in the fourth quarter of 2009 rose year over year by $15,000 — or nearly 5 percent — to $325,000, indicating a firming of the market.
Although housing experts said the starter-home market at $350,000 has stabilized and appears to be rising as distressed properties leave the market, homes above $800,000 are still falling because of job losses and higher-cost mortgages.
Buyers always want to know where to find deals, but there is no geographic pricing pattern. Some high-end ZIP codes such as Rancho Santa Fe were up, while others such as Coronado were down. North Park dropped, while neighboring Normal Heights-Kensington increased. Spring Valley was up; Lemon Grove was flat.
Veteran real estate consultant Alan Nevin said the local housing market is becoming more stable, but he noted that the quarterly figures do not show a clear trend.
“I was hoping to find a pattern, and there was no pattern,” Nevin said. “Even in neighborhoods where there was a lot of activity, you would have thought, with 300 to 400 sales, you could be pretty reliant on the accuracy of the numbers. I’m not seeing that.”
If the experts are befuddled, where does that leave buyers and sellers?
Throughout the county, the lowest prices in years sparked keen interest from buyers who could not afford to participate during the boom. Jim Bottrell of Realty Experts in Escondido said that Oceanside was particularly active. Virtually all of the 42 transactions Bottrell handled last year involved military families.
“You have a military market that for the last 10 years hasn’t been able to buy,” Bottrell said. “All of a sudden, they can afford to buy a house.”
In western Escondido — ZIP code 92029 — where the median had the sharpest rise, Norman and Marietta Young had to lower the asking price by $30,000 to $465,000 last week on their 2,610-square-foot home on 1.35 acres at Country Club Drive. The Youngs might have been able to sell at $700,000 several years ago.
“It was insane,” Norman Young said. “It was not supply and demand, it was an absurdity.”
They had the home in escrow last year near the first listing price of $495,000 before the buyer backed out because of financing problems.
“I think the pricing of homes right now is a lot more realistic,” Young said.
Their agent, Monica White of Picot Realty, said she plans an open house next weekend and expects to receive offers at the reduced price.
DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage cautioned against reading too much into price increases in certain ZIP codes.
“For now, I think the increases we’re seeing in the median are largely the result of changes in the types of homes selling,”
LePage said, adding that there may be fewer low-priced homes but more higher-priced, discounted homes.
LePage said that while coastal properties generally are holding their values better than inland homes, high-priced properties are still eroding.
Gerri-Lynn Fives, president of the Coronado Real Estate Association, said she was not surprised to learn that Coronado’s median price was down 21 percent to $995,000 because many owners of second homes were willing to sell at a loss. Unless would-be buyers can make a 20 percent down payment, they usually cannot take advantage of the lower prices.
In downtown San Diego, hit hard by the overbuilding of high-rise condominiums during the boom years, Jim Abbott of ARG Abbott Realty said there are 411 listings in a market where there were 337 sales in the fourth quarter. The median price was $365,000, down 11.7 percent from a year earlier.
“There’s no question that the first crush of foreclosures that hit the market were snapped up by many all-cash investors,” Abbott said. “That actually stabilized the market and made it very competitive.”
Those investors are largely gone, replaced by owner-occupants who are stymied from buying because of lender rules that are tougher for condos than single-family homes.
“I really think we have another at least three to five years of this, because there’s so much inventory that’s not on the market,” Abbott said.
He was referring to the shadow inventory of foreclosures that banks have not yet listed for sale, plus homes previously offered for sale but taken off the market by owners who did not want to lower their prices.
The result is that as of last week, listings since July have dropped 35.6 percent to 4,706 single-family resale homes, according to the San Diego Association of Realtors. Resale condo listings were down 45.4 percent to 2,571.
Jorge Vega, broker for Community HousingWorks, said the declining inventory of starter homes is forcing first-time buyers to increase their down payment offers to compete against all-cash buyers. Vega said those who want to take advantage of the $8,000 federal tax credit, plus those eligible for the $6,500 move-up tax credit, should be aware of the April 30 deadline.
“I think the market is beginning to demonstrate some consistency, but overall, San Diego’s numbers are so varied that I think we’re still in for some surprises before this is out,” Vega said. “Toward the end of the year, we will be able to have a clear picture of what’s going on.”
