Thursday, August 26, 2010

Home sales fall more than expected

(Source: USA TODAY)trackingBy Stephanie Armour

Existing-home sales in July plunged to the lowest level in 15 years, deepening worries that the housing market's tenuous recovery is threatened by buyers' shaky confidence in the economy.

Economic forecasts were plenty pessimistic ahead of Tuesday's report by the National Association of Realtors because of other data pointing to weakening sales since the federal tax credit ended in April.

The actual numbers were far worse -- sales fell more than 27% from June and 25% from a year ago to an annual rate of 3.83 million units.

Sales have averaged 5.2 million for the past three years.

"It is not clear if the housing market hit a huge air pocket or crashed and burned, but for now, this sector looks to be flat on its back," says Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors.

The stunning drop-off when mortgage rates are at historic lows indicates many potential buyers have lost confidence, Naroff says. "If no one is confident, I don't know that the interest rates matter, no one is going to want to borrow," he says.

Economists say Tuesday's report also indicates that the housing recovery has faltered.

"This qualifies as a double dip in housing," says Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, adding buyer confidence has also been shaken by a weakening stock market and a lack of jobs. "These are pretty ugly numbers."

No region of the country was spared: Existing-home sales fell 35% in the Midwest, 30% in the Northeast, 25% in the West and 23% in the South.

One bright spot was prices.

The national median home price rose to $182,600, up 0.7% compared with July 2009.

Distressed sales represented 32% of all sales, about the same as in June and a year ago.

Home sales are being stymied by tight lending standards and a large number of homeowners who lack equity in their homes.

"Even if they had the confidence to buy, that might not do any good because they might not be able to get credit or they might be underwater on the home they've got," says Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight.

Another read on the housing market comes today when the government reports new-home sales.

Many economists predict housing sales will show some improvement this fall but will remain weak until unemployment -- 9.5% in July -- comes down.

"People really aren't looking," says Ellen Assael, a Realtor at ZipRealty in Westchester, N.Y. "It's a really very stagnant market right now. People are still nervous."

(c) Copyright 2010 USA TODAY, a division of Gannett Co. Inc.