Monday, January 31, 2011

The U-T's weekly look back, look ahead

SUNDAY, JANUARY 30, 2011 AT NOON

We ended last week with a flurry of new findings on foreclosures and home prices for San Diego Countyand the western U.S. We’re expecting a quieter week ahead.

Last week, a key question on foreclosures that will likely be raised throughout 2011: Is the worst over?

The simple (to some, obvious) answer is: No one knows for sure. In December, San Diego County saw foreclosures and mortgage defaults drop to their lowest levels in three years, according to DataQuick Information Systems.

But the drastic drop could be attributed to several variables, including a shadow inventory of distressed homes, an increase in short sales or an improving economy.

Compared to other major metro areas in the U.S., the San Diego region posted the third largest dip in foreclosures from 2009 to 2010, at 17 percent, according to RealtyTrac, a website of foreclosure listings. Washington D.C.,’s foreclosure rate fell the most at 22 percent. (Read the company's full report here.)

Local experts say it might be too early to celebrate those drops because foreclosure levels are still historically high in some of the hardest-hit markets.

Also last week, San Diego was among only four major metro areas in the U.S. that saw a year-over-year increase in home prices, rising 2.6 percent. (Get a refresher on that story here.)

Here are a couple things to expect this week:

Tuesday: The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce will release its December numbers for private and public construction spending. Figures will include residential construction. (See the previous report here.)

Thursday: Freddie Mac officials will release its weekly survey on average mortgage rates. Last week, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.8 percent, up from 4.74 percent. The 15-year fixed rate averaged 4.09 percent, up from 4.05 percent. (Read more about that here.)

Friday: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistic publishes its employment numbers for January. The previous report, which showed December figures, showed a 0.4 percentage point drop to 9.4 percent. (Read that summary here.)

Lily Leung: (619)293-1719; lily.leung@uniontrib.com; Twitter @LilyShumLeung