The median price in the county last month was $422,000, up from $415,000 in August and $417,500 in July. Over the past 12 months, the county’s median price has risen 20.6 percent.
The number of sales, however, dropped 17.5 percent from August to September. Last month, 3,383 homes were sold in San Diego County, the first time since April there were fewer than 4,000 transactions. Still, sales were up 5.3 percent from September 2012.
The numbers show the market is leveling off, said John Walsh, president of DataQuick, a real estate tracking firm.
“We’ve seen a fairly normal downshifting in the housing market this fall,” he said in a statement. “Couple that with the rise in inventory, higher mortgage rates and the ongoing, gradual drop in purchases by investors and cash buyers, and it’s no wonder prices have leveled off in recent months.”
Michael Lea, a real estate professor at San Diego State University, said the data show that San Diego’s housing market is in a long-term recovery mode.
“Distressed sales are falling, and from the standpoint of buyers, a lot of the deals are gone,” he said.
Short sales comprised 14.3 percent of the market in September, down from 30.5 percent a year ago. Foreclosures were 4.4 percent of the market, down from 13.2 percent in September 2012.
Lea said the drop in distressed sales, plus the double-digit, year-over-year price increases are taking some steam out of the market. Lea said a healthy annual appreciation would be 5 to 6 percent.
For noncash buyers, borrowing is also getting more expensive.
Freddie Mac reported Oct. 10 that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 4.23 percent. While that’s down slightly from last month, it’s higher than the 3.35 percent borrowers could get in May. Lea noted, however, that rates are still low by historic standards.
Separately, the Greater San Diego Association of Realtors reported that there were 6,838 active listings in September, up from 5,589 in September 2012. But inventory is still relatively low, as listings regularly exceeded 10,000 per month from the spring of 2010 through November 2011. As of Wednesday morning, there were 7,050 active listings in the county, the association reported.
In Southern California, San Bernardino County had the largest year-over-year median price increase, up 32.4 percent to $225,000.
Walsh in his statement noted that any lingering effect on the housing market over political gridlock in Washington remains to be seen. The uncertainty would be reflected in future data.
“What’s not clear is how well the market can weather the job losses related to the federal government shutdown and the blow to consumer confidence caused by fears of a default in the national debt,” Walsh said. “Those impacts would start to show up in data released over the next couple of months.”
Written by,
Jonathan Horn
